How not to win a stock-picking contest
I recently received an email from a high school student asking for advice on winning a stock-picking contest.
Here's my reply:
Dear <name changed>,
Thanks for your e-mail.
Winning a stock-picking contest and following a sound investment strategy are the complete opposites of one another.
You mention Las Vegas which is exactly the strategy you'll need (along with a whole lot of luck) to win the stock-picking contest.
Pick a very small number (one perhaps) of volatile, risky, small-cap stocks and "let it ride."
Note: I would never recommend this as a strategy to anyone investing any real money.
A sound investment strategy would consist of hundreds if not thousands of stocks, bonds, and perhaps other securities, resulting
in an elimination of "diversifiable risk." This essentially represents the difference between investing and gambling.
There is a very easy and cost-effective way to achieve this, namely by buying and holding a small number of index funds.
So, have fun in the contest but don't confuse the experience (bad or good) with skill.
Whoever wins will be determined by luck, nothing more.
Kindest Regards,
John
As a sidenote, I consider it criminal activity when schools and teachers sponsor such contests under the guise of "educating the students on investing and the financial markets."
Take the kids on a field trip to Las Vegas instead.
