Investing lessons courtesy of the Austin marathon
The Austin Marathon makes a pretty bold claim on its website, one that ironically holds some valuable lessons for investors.
Here's the claim:
Deceptively Fast Course
The 2010 Austin Marathon is also a Boston Marathon qualifier and consistently produces one of the largest percentages of qualifiers, compared to other Texas Marathons. In fact, a comparison of finish times from the 2008-2009 Marathons of Texas season showed that for the average runner athletes in Austin ran more quickly across almost every age group.
* The chart above was produced using official results from the indicated races from the 2008 - 2009 Marathons of Texas season. To compensate in differences in course closure times no runners finishing after 6 hours were factored into this chart.
Wow. Those are some pretty impressive statistics. If somebody is looking to run their first marathon, this would be a nice course to run it on. And more experienced runners, those wanting to qualify for the Boston Marathon for example, would really like this course since the times are so much faster.
Or are they?
Lesson #1: Consider the source
Always be skeptical of data interpretation that is produced by a party that has a vested interest in the outcome.
Lesson #2: If it sounds too good to be true, it is
There's no logical reason why the Austin course should produce faster individual times than the Dallas course. The Austin course has three times the vertical ascent and descent and neither is a point-to-point course so the net elevation gain/loss is close to zero on both.
Lesson #3: Don't confuse cause and effect
Their claim is that the course is significantly faster and they base this on data that shows that the average times across representative age groups are faster. The data are true but the conclusion is not.
Lesson #4: Data can say whatever someone wants them to say
If the course is significantly faster, then runners who finish both races should (at least on average) have faster times. My cursory examination of the Male 30-34 and Female 35-39 age groups of runners who ran both the 2009 Austin marathon and the 2009 Dallas White Rock Marathon showed a significantly higher proportion of better individual times in the Dallas race, not the Austin race.
Lesson #5: Logic and common sense are better than statistics
How about this for a better explanation. The course isn't faster, the field (ie, the group of participating runners) is. Austin has an extremely fit population while Dallas does not. Dallas was ranked #14 (Houston was #6) in the 2009 Men's Fitness magazine "fattest cities in America." Austin was ranked #17 on the same survey's "fittest cities in America."
If you ask a runner who regularly competes in both cities, they will tell you that relative to other runners, they are slower in Austin than they are in Dallas.
Lesson #6: Most of what you read is incorrect, misleading, or biased.
"Always start your day with the truth (God's Word)... since you're likely to hear lies the rest of the day."
-- Steve Farrar
